I've been trying, without much luck, to summon all of my passion to write about the upcoming presidential election. Several things are holding me back.
First, it is really far too early to deal with this sort of thing. Mr. Bush still has two more years to pray for a miracle in Iraq, and miracle or no, we still have two more years to deal with him. A lame duck is not quite the same thing as no duck.
Second, the aforesaid notwithstanding, we live in an age inundated with what might be called, somewhat erroneously, information. Twenty-four hour cable news channels, talk radio hosts, and bloggers incessantly offer predictions. Occasionally the prophet is not wholly ignorant concerning the subject of his prophesy.
I think making political predictions akin to forecasting the results of a prospective sporting match. There is no harm in speculating, but no one ultimately has any idea about any of these sort of things. This year, ESPN's “The Sports Guy” has been making weekly football predictions, as has his wife, “The Sports Gal”. The Sports Guy has a degree in Sports Erudition, while his wife, though nominally familiar with them, is not as obsessed as her husband. Of course this means that they're deadlocked heading into the Super Bowl. Presidential elections are like sports. Though less enjoyable and exciting, they are, like sporting contests, ultimately unpredictable.
Third, I don't have a horse in the metaphorical race. None of the major party candidates interest me in the least—sort of like the WNBA.
This said, I still have half a column to fill. Thus I will offer my prediction: Hillary Clinton will be the President in 2008. It is not so much that she is the best candidate as that every one of the other candidates is wholly unelectable. Let us examine the competition to see why Hillary will emerge victorious. On the Republican side we have:
Rudy Guiliani. Currently on his third wife, Guiliani is pro-choice, pro-gay-marriage, pro-gun-control and pro-immigration. That's five strikes too many. While the especially imbecilic members of the religious right will vote for any guy with the R, a nominally respectable social conservative cannot vote for Guiliani. Consider his goose cooked.
John McCain. Currently on his second wife, while he is, at least ostensibly, pro-life, he believes Global Warming to be a problem, something his base does not. Conversely, he has no qualms with illegal immigration, though the very concept makes his base livid. Additionally, McCain was rejected by Republicans in 2000 for the “more conservative” George W. Bush. His prospect: dubious.
Mitt Romney. On the plus side he's still with his first wife. Unfortunately, his stance on abortion is almost as hard to detect as was Kerry's 2004 stance on Iraq. His view on gay marriage is likewise hard to pin down. He's also a Mormon with little to no support in the polls, a most unlikely candidate for the Presidency.
On the Democratic side, there is first and foremost Barack Obama. Extremely likable, he is possibly even more charismatic than Bill Clinton was. And when your party's affinity for rational ideas is non-existent, charisma can go far. But he's a palpable buffoon who can spout off platitudinal soundbites, but cannot delineate a position. Further, despite an early lead, he's now trailing Hillary by nineteen points in at least one poll. He's peaked, but only this time around. Still a political baby, Obama could one day become president. But not in 2008.
Kerry has withdrawn his bid, and although Edwards and Gore may threaten, even the Democrats are smart enough to pass on a lousy lawyer and someone who couldn't beat Bush the first time around. Gore did oppose the War in Iraq from the get-go, a solid plus, but he's still a loser, and the Democrats, and the American people, will be hesitant to trust him.
If Hillary wants it, she's in. The field for '08 shows resemblance to Monty Python's skit, The Upper Class Twit of the Year. She simply needs to stand back and let the twits shoot themselves in the head. The candidate who brings the least negatives to the table is going to win. Surprisingly, that could be Hillary “my husband is the king of scandals” Clinton. This is just a silly prediction of course, but I for one am looking forward to at least four years with First Lady Bill.
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