President Hillary

Prediction: Hillary Clinton will be the first woman president in 2008. That means we get to have Bill back in the White House too.

It brings me no joy to say this. Still, it is the best kind of prediction because I will be much happier if I am wrong. Unfortunately, I do not think I will be wrong, which is the reason for this whole post.

There are several reasons why Hillary will make an electable president. First, the democratic party is in--to use the parlance of the anti-military wing--a quagmire. True, Howard Dean is firing up the all important base and raising money left and right, but the republicans are beating the dems two to one in the all important money game. The more important issue is that the party is leaderless. The leftist wing of the party may keep a special place for Dean in their hearts, but he is utterly unelectable. Charismatic he is, credible he is not.

Hillary on the other hand is both charismatic and credible. The charisma is obvious, but some of my conservative compatriots may cringe at my use of the word credible. She is certainly liberal, perhaps even more so than Dean, but image is everything, and Mrs. Clinton is doing her best to make sure that she is seen as a moderate.

Her most important move has been to support this war. The liberals are going to forgive her on this one, and she knows it. After eight years of Bush, liberals would ressurect Mondale for another trial if he could win. Remember too, we've still got almost three years of the Bush presidency and the disgust isn't going to go away. It will grow and in will step Hillary to save the day.

The democrats then, are quite sick of losing. They've lost the house and now the senate and have even lost to an idiot--by their estimation--not once, but twice. The Clintons have a proven track record for winning, and that may be the most important aspect in canidate consideration. If Hillary wants the nomination, she'll get it. The republicans turned on Buchanan in 1996, but the democrats will be loyal if they learn anything from history.

Hillary's stance on the Iraq War is important because it shows her to be bipartisan. To right-wing nuts like myself, bipartisan is a loathsome term, but to the moderates who can't seem to make up their minds on where they stand, it is a most lovely slogan. Moderates adore cooperation and if Hillary is seen as a compromiser, you can bet some of them are going to hop on the Hillary bandwagon.

Another reason Hillary is going to win is fatigue with the Bush administration. We like a Christian--I cannot see this country electing an atheist at this point--and Bush is one. But Christianity runs only so deep here, and heavy-handed "good vs. evil" rhetoric causes tepid souls to balk. Once gung-ho for the war, most Americans are about ready to just claim victory and bring the troops home. Bush will bring most, if not all of the soldiers home before the end of his presidency--he has to--but the longer he waits, the more tired we will become with having out men and women die for an increasing ambiguous goal. When they do come home, the Middle East is not going to be a democratic panacea, and the fingers will begin to point back at Bush. In short, the countr will be ready for change; the republicans were okay, but perhaps a democratic banner will be more pleasant.

The last reason that Hillary will win is the potential for fracture in the republican party. There are two very angry groups within the broad republican campsite. The true conservatives are upset with a republican who does not govern like Jefferson or even Reagan would. The most unforgivable sin that Bush has committed has been his negligence concerning border security. The other group is the religious right. Bush has one confirmation coming up and another seeming all the more likely as Rhenquist's health is suspect. If Bush does not place two strong pro-life justices on the high court, there could be proverbial hell to pay. Even a small deflection by either group could cost the republican heir a chance at the throne.

Thus I have laid out my case for why I think Hillary will be president in 2008. For once I wish I was wrong. I know it's early for postulating, but this is how I see it as of now. A lot can change between now and then, and I pray it does. Still, when it happens, don't say I didn't tell you so. And don't worry, with Hillary in charge I'll stay humble.

Some victories are bitter indeed.